The world’s central banks have pumped £3 trillion into the global economy since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. This represents the equivalent of 8pc of the world economy, according to an analysis by Fathom Consulting. The figures will intensify fears that the extra cash flooding the system is responsible for rising stock markets, rather than any … read all
Leading economist Simon Ward has accused The Bank of England of using “smoke and mirrors” to present official forecasts for inflation. With the annual rate of price rises currently double the official target at 4pc and showing signs it will keep rising, the Bank’s central projection that the rate should return to 2pc next year is looking like pure fantasy.
Mr. Ward, chief economist of global investment fund Henderson’s, thinks the Bank is diverting attention from a far more worrying presentation of how fast it thinks prices will rise in the future.
“Inflation-targeting has become meaningless,” he said. “The opacity of the forecasting process and scope for creative interpretation of the remit and presentational manipulation imply that there is no effective constraint on the Monetary Policy Committee’s [MPC] ‘discretion’.”
Arguing that the Bank’s most recent quarterly forecasts show its mean forecast the mathematical average of projections is for inflation of 2.48pc two years ahead, if interest rates do not rise he said that as the mean forecast takes account of the skew of risks, it is a useful indicator as to whether the MPC is on track.. He warned that the latest figure was “the largest positive deviation from the target since February 1998 and clearly signal the need for higher interest rates”.
Since the numbers lying behind the forecasts are only revealed a week after the report is published, Mr Ward said “the caravan had moved on by the time the numbers are published”.
Mr Ward also thinks the Bank is being disingenuous when it refers to the projected path of inflation if interest rates rise as markets expect.
That, he said, allows the doves on the MPC the members who wants interest rates to stay low “to take credit for market-implied tightening without ever delivering.”
For instance, when the last set of forecasts were put out in February, the mean forecast looked to be on target two years away, when market expectations were factored in. However, at the time, markets expected a rise to come in the second quarter of this year. Mr Ward said the consensus among economists is that would not now occur.
In addition to these “presentational tricks”, Mr Ward argued that MPC members can change the forecast to suit the policy they want, as the process is reliant on judgement. He thinks the Bank should put more emphasis on where inflation will be in the nearer term, such as 12 months ahead.
The Daily Stirrer’s economic expert John de Roe has been warning for over a year that inflation was running much higher than official figures showed.
Gildas the Monk wrote on in a post on Anna Raccoon blog:
Aso Mohammed Ibrahim came to this country in 2001 from Iraq, seeking asylum. Seeking then the protection of the rule of law and the tolerance of this countrys people. His application for Asylum failed, as did his appeal, but the Supine State did nothing to remove him.
By 2003 he was already banned from driving for 9 months, having been convicted of driving without a licence and without insurance. He was directly flouting that ban when he ran down 12 year old Amy Houston near her home in Darwen, Lancashire, leaving her still conscious but dying beneath his Rover car as he ran away from the scene.
Pausing there, since I have not been able to find any record of Ibrahim having gainful employment, where did the money for the car come from? Why, Ibrahim, do you claim that you can enjoy the peace and security of the protection of the law which this country offers you when you spit in its face by wilfully ignoring it? Why do you think it is right to leave a child sobbing and dying under the weight of your car and not try to help?
Ultimately, Amys father Paul had to make the decision to switch off her life support machine. Ibrahim was sentenced to a pitiful four months in jail (of which he served two), before being released to pursue his criminal career, which he did, racking up more driving convictions, and cautions for harassment, burglary and theft.
Eventually even the Supine State moved into gear and in 2008, six years after his application for asylum had failed, five years after this criminal left a little girl dying beneath the wheels of a car he had been banned from driving, the Border Agency began proceedings to deport Ibrahim on the grounds of persistent criminality.
But in the meantime, and with grim inevitability, the criminal Ibrahim had sired two children.
And thus it came to pass that despite Ibrahims abhorrent behaviour, the Immigration Tribunal ruled that his and his childrens right to a family life under Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights meant that he could not now be deported.
In the comment thread somebody posted:
Im proud of my country. What other nation would provide a choice of meals to meet the dietary needs of prisoners from other nations ?
Yeah, I second that.
More posts on the Insanities of the Politically Correct fascists who have hijacked our country. If they really care about equality we only need one law to make everybody equal, SAME RULES APPLY.
More archive humour, satire and stirring at BBselect005
Mad Dog Gadaffi was never going to go quietly.
Libya is unleashing a wave of migrants against Europe as retaliation for the coalition’s military strikes against the country.
Last week The Daily Stirrer reported the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa is being overrun with refugees fleeing the troubles in North Africa.
The opening of immigration floodgates came as Italy announced that it would grant travel permits to more than 20,000 Tunisian refugees who have reached its southernmost islands in recent weeks.
The Italian government said the temporary permits would grant the refugees freedom of movement within the visa-free Schengen area, but in reality most want to head to France.
Paris reacted angrily to the move, with Claude Gueant, the interior minister, saying the country would not tolerate “a wave of immigration” and warning that migrants without proper identity documents and sufficient funds would be turned back at the border.
The Schengen zone excludes Britain and Ireland, but migrants could attempt to enter the UK illegally from the Continent.
The Tunisians are among nearly 26,000 migrants who have managed to reach the tiny island of Lampedusa, Italy’s southernmost community, since January, when president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was toppled by a popular revolt.
I always said it was a mistake to get involved. Mainstream media are now starting to report what anyone with half a brain knew in February, the Egyptian uprising was not a spontaneous uprising of disaffedted middle class pro0fessionals but a campaign orchestrated by the Islamic extremist Muslim Brotherhood and aimed at deposing the nasty but pro western Mubarak regime and replacing it with something even nastier and not at all friendly to the west.
The Libyan uprising was orchestrated by Al Qaeda sympathisers and allegedly led by Al Qaeda activists. This is why everybody has gone very quiet about the idea of arming the rebels.
We should have kept our noses out, let Gadaffio crush the rebellion (which he is going to do anyway) and avoided pissing him off. There are more that enough middle eastern lunatics well pissed off with the west already.